Monsoon Delayed Experts Predict July Date For Delhi

The onset of monsoon in the national capital is likely to be delayed, weather experts said on Saturday, citing the slow progress of the system that is yet to cover parts of the country such as Mumbai, where its normal date of arrival is June 8.

They clarified that the recent spells of rain and thundershowers --- more are expected in coming days --- are not part of the monsoons; they are instead an outcome of western disturbances.

In a typical year, the rains arrive in the national capital around June 27 -- but this year, that arrival may happen well into July.

“For the monsoon to progress, there should be a weather system developing over the Bay of Bengal, to pull the monsoon from the Arabian Sea. This push and pull system is almost absent this year, which means there is no triggering mechanism for the monsoon,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice president of Skymet Weather.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the monsoon was yet to reach central India as well. “Currently, the monsoon’s arrival to Mumbai is also delayed. While it has reached the south, and southern parts of Maharashtra, we are expecting it to advance around June 23 to Maharashtra and other states, such as Rajasthan and Gujarat,” IMD’s director general, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, said.

According to the IMD data, the monsoon trough is passing through Harnai, Solapur, Hyderabad, Bhadrachalam, Koraput, Phulbani, Ranchi, Jamui, and Muzaffarpur on Saturday.

Last year, the Capital had seen a marginal delay in the arrival of the monsoon, as it reached the city on June 29, instead of June 27.

Amateur meteorologist Navdeep Dahiya said that Delhi could experience a significantly longer delay this year. “It takes at least 10 to 15 days for the monsoon to move from central India to north India. According to our current analysis, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and the surrounding areas will get covered by the end of June; July 6 to July 10 is the ideal time for the monsoon to reach Delhi,” he said.

The delay comes amid an increasing monsoon deficit across India, as experts also predicted a weaker monsoon this year. The IMD stated on Saturday that the country as a whole was facing a monsoon deficit of 41.1%, having recorded only 51.5mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 19, compared to a long-period average of 86.7mm.

To be sure, northwest India has only recorded a deficit of 4% in the same period, having recorded 34.9mm rainfall against a long-period average of 36.4mm.

In 2025, Delhi recorded 88.01mm of rainfall between June 1 and June 20, while it has recorded 22.7mm of rainfall this year. The IMD’s normal rainfall for the month of June is 74.1mm. “There definitely has been around 20% to 30% lesser rainfall in June this year than normal. We are currently expecting the monsoon to have a weaker onset as well, but it could change, as even after a delayed start, the rains in July could make up for it,” said Dahiya.

Historically, the rainfall in June accounts for only around 19% to 20% of the rainfall India receives between June 1 and September 30, the duration of the southwest monsoon in the country.

Due to a lack of weather activity, Delhi is also likely to continue experiencing hot, humid days for the coming week.

While the IMD had issued a “yellow” alert—later upgraded to an “orange” alert—for rainfall and thunderstorms on Saturday, none of the weather stations in Delhi recorded any rainfall until 5.30pm.

On Saturday, Delhi recorded a maximum temperature of 40.2 degrees Celsius (°C), which was higher than the normal of 38.6°C. The minimum temperature was 28.7°C, which was around normal.

The city recorded humidity of 35%-68% on the day, which caused the “feels like” temperature to swelter. Delhi recorded a “feels like” temperature of 42°C at 11.30am. 44.2°C at 2.30pm, and 43.4°C at 5.30pm.

The IMD has predicted rainfall on Sunday and Monday, which is likely to cause a marginal dip in the maximum temperature to 36°C-38°C over the start of the coming week, after which the mercury is expected to continue to rise, to 38°C-40°C again by June 26. To be sure, the IMD’s normal maximum temperature for June 20 to June 24 is 38.6°C, while the normal for June 25 to June 29 is 37.2°C.

“The weather is likely to remain hot for the coming few days, as only isolated weather activities are ongoing, which are contributing to the humidity but not lowering the heat. For the next two to three days, northwesterly dry winds are expected to continue flowing through the city,” said Palawat.