Iran Us Framework Pact Is A Relief Work Lies Ahead

. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the counter-blockade by the US triggered an economic shock, reminiscent of the Covid days. Oil prices have fallen, and stock markets worldwide have rallied after the announcement of the framework agreement. However, amid the optimism, it is important to remember that what has been agreed to is not a final deal but a framework to address longstanding issues. The prospect of a return to unrestricted shipping is heartening. But that, too, could take time to materialise and will depend on how safe shipping companies and insurers feel. Still, an open strait — through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes — is good news. Its reopening, according to Trump, will depend on the signing of the final agreement, scheduled for Friday.

If the past two weeks are any indication, it takes very little for all sides to resume hostilities. Israel has already declared that it will not withdraw from Lebanon, while Tehran has demonstrated its willingness to call Tel Aviv’s bluff and retaliate — militarily and by closing the Strait of Hormuz — if Lebanon is excluded from the terms of the ceasefire. Negotiating the details of Iran’s nuclear programme, the release of frozen assets, sanctions relief, and securing the strait from future conflicts are even more difficult long-term challenges. For the US, a legitimate question, given that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is only a return to the status quo ante, is: What exactly has Trump achieved? Republican hardliners have been opposing any deal short of a Carthaginian one, arguing that a compromise would weaken America’s standing in the region. Israel, too, is deeply divided. Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right cabinet members have denounced the framework pact as a strategic failure. In Iran, hardliners within the IRGC oppose any agreement they perceive as surrendering leverage without securing meaningful guarantees, even as the country is in need of sanctions relief and reconstruction funding — both of which are unlikely to materialise without US acquiescence.

With millions of Indians working across the Gulf, thousands serving at sea, and households grappling with high fuel and LPG prices, the crisis is not a distant one for New Delhi. It should lend its support to the peace process. Without sustained engagement, the current pause risks becoming little more than an interlude in a cycle of instability.