Europe Must Rethink How It Will Live With Heat

These were meant to be emergency responses to “once-in-a-generation” extreme weather events. Two decades later, high summer temperatures are no longer an anomaly in Europe. Over the past five years, all summers but one have seen severe heatwaves. The science is clear: Increasing carbon emissions are causing weather patterns to change, with Europe being the fastest-warming region. Heat stress has had repercussions for health, infrastructure and labour productivity. Estimates predict an excess of 2,000 deaths in Europe this summer. Railways have been disrupted and roads have melted. Germany and the UK have issued advisories to avoid non-essential travel. European heat action plans remain largely geared towards protecting people rather than ensuring that society continues functioning. Will Europe move towards seeing heatwaves as a broader infrastructure, productivity and agricultural issue?

Espoused by far-right politicians like Marine Le Pen, there are calls for Europe to become an “air-conditioned” society. AC penetration remains low, with only one in five households owning one. There has been opposition from environmentalists, saying ACs will lead to higher carbon emissions that cause more global heating. Yet portraying ACs as environmentally irresponsible ignores the reality that Europe has long accepted the carbon costs of winter heating. Space heating contributes to 10 per cent of global carbon emissions versus 3 per cent from space cooling. When there is a need, Europeans, too, consider comfort over emissions.

ACs also come with problems of equity, as seen in many Global South countries. The rich can adopt them while the poor cannot. Europe has some of the highest electricity costs, with 10 per cent of the population facing “energy poverty”. While vulnerable populations should be protected through ACs, this is not a universal solution. Issues of grid capacity to meet peak demand from space cooling must also be considered. As long as cheaper, sustainable alternatives exist, air conditioning need not be the only answer.

In the Global South, disruptions and failings in infrastructure are often criticised as resulting from a lack of adequate planning. In Europe, when similar systems fail, governments tend to argue that they have not been built for high temperatures. In the Global South, initiatives like the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure are working towards climate preparedness. Similar efforts will have to be made in Europe. This will not require a reinvention of the wheel. The technologies and materials needed exist in the Global South. A less-discussed aspect is agriculture. Unpredictable weather patterns make it difficult to plan crops, with France stating that it has lost up to one-third of its corn production. Farm animals are unable to adapt to heat stress. There are restrictions on farming activities during peak hours, and storing and transporting goods is a challenge. Farmers will need to start diversifying crop patterns. Given the strength of farmer lobbies in the EU, implementation of such plans may see pushback. For millions in the Global South, adapting to heat stress has become a way of life. As extreme heat becomes Europe’s new normal, it must also learn to build resilient societies.

The writer is fellow, Centre for Social and Economic Progress