How Aap Regains Ground In Urban Punjab In 2026 Civic Polls After 2024 Ls Setback

In 2022, one year after it swept Punjab’s urban local body polls, the Congress, the state’s then incumbent party, suffered a stinging defeat at the hands of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the Assembly elections. Four years later, the ruling AAP has now similarly dominated the recently concluded state civic polls in a contest that is being viewed not only as a “referendum” on the Bhagwant Mann government, but also as an indication of the political winds ahead of the 2027 Assembly elections. The results of Punjab’s urban local body elections, announced on May 29, put the AAP in the majority in five of eight municipal corporations, 39 of 75 municipal councils, and nine of 20 nagar panchayats. However, the AAP may be wary of strong performances notched by the Opposition Congress, BJP and Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in some urban pockets. Municipal corporations Among the eight municipal corporations that held elections, the AAP fell short in three – Abohar, Kapurthala and Pathankot. While the Congress secured a majority in the Kapurthala Municipal Corporation, the BJP won a majority in Abohar and emerged as the single-largest party in Pathankot. In the municipal corporations of Barnala, Batala, Bathinda, Moga and Mohali, the AAP won outright majorities in each of their 50-member Houses. In the 2022 Assembly polls for Punjab’s 117 constituencies, the AAP was dominant in the seats covering these urban local bodies. In the Bathinda Urban Assembly seat, for instance, the AAP had won 57.2% of the vote share and defeated the Congress runner-up by almost 64,000 votes in the 2022 polls. In the Barnala and Mohali seats, the AAP had managed vote shares of about 49% each, while in Batala and Moga the party had secured 43.6% and 41%, respectively, sweeping all these seats. But by the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the AAP had slid considerably in these urban pockets. The party led in only one of the Assembly segments – Barnala – covering these municipal corporations. The Congress was the leading party in Batala and Mohali, the BJP had led in Bathinda Urban, and an Independent had led in Moga. That year, the AAP had won just three of Punjab’s 13 Lok Sabha constituencies as against the Congress’s seven seats. The 2026 civic body election outcome, therefore, amounts to a recovery for the AAP in areas covered by the five municipal corporations where it has secured a majority. But of concern to the AAP are the three corporations where it has fallen behind an Opposition party. In Abohar Municipal Corporation, for instance, where the BJP won a majority of seats, the party is continuing its strong showing from the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, in which the BJP had emerged as the leader with a 46.7% vote share in the Abohar Assembly segment. The BJP has seen a marked improvement in Abohar since the 2022 Assembly polls, when it had placed third with just 16.2% of the vote share, losing to the Congress winner by more than 28,000 votes. Under the Pathankot Municipal Corporation, where the BJP emerged as the single-largest party ahead of the Congress and the AAP, the BJP had won the Pathankot Assembly seat with a vote share of 38% in the 2022 polls and extended its vote-share lead in the segment to 49.8% in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The Congress has won a comfortable majority in the Kapurthala Municipal Corporation. In 2022, it had won the Kapurthala Assembly seat with a 42.9% vote share, and retained its lead there in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls with a reduced 32.9% vote share. With the AAP trailing behind the BJP and the Congress in Abohar, Pathankot and Kapurthala consistently across elections, it remains to be seen if the party can overcome the “anti-incumbency” among urban voters here in the 2027 Assembly polls, while retaining its advantage in Barnala, Batala, Bathinda, Moga and Mohali. Municipal councils Across 75 municipal councils covering 1,331 wards, the AAP has won a total 654 wards en route to securing majorities in 39 councils. The AAP finished well clear of the Opposition – the Congress won a total 277 wards and four majorities, the SAD 113 wards and one majority, and the BJP 103 wards and one majority. As many as 23 municipal councils, however, saw a hung verdict and another seven saw Independents win a majority of seats. These 1,331 municipal council wards are covered by 60 Assembly constituencies across 22 districts. In the municipal council polls, in as many as 32 of these Assembly segments, the AAP managed to win a majority of wards. Of these 32 seats, the AAP had emerged as the winner in 26 in the 2022 Assembly polls and as the leading party in 16 in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress and the SAD had won four and two of these 32 seats, respectively, in the 2022 polls. By the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had managed to lead in eight of these segments, the SAD and BJP in two each, and an Independent in four. Since 2022, the AAP has seen its influence in these 32 seats decline before picking up again in the recent civic body elections. However, the AAP may be more worried about the 28 Assembly constituencies where it has faced stiffer competition in the recent municipal council polls, failing to secure an outright majority there. Of these 28 seats, the AAP was the winner in 23 in the 2022 Assembly polls, but only managed to lead in seven in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. In the municipal corporations covered by these 28 Assembly constituencies, the Opposition candidates had won just four seats in the 2022 polls, including two by the Congress and one by the BJP, but led as many as 21 Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, including 10 by the Congress, 5 by the SAD and 4 by the BJP. If these urban pockets continue to evade the AAP, the party may struggle in the 2027 Assembly polls. For instance, in the Chamkaur Sahib and Morinda municipal councils under the Chamkaur Sahib Assembly seat, the AAP won a combined three seats from a total 28, with the Congress securing majorities in these two councils. Though the AAP won the Chamkaur Sahib Assembly seat in 2022, it ceded ground to the Congress in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, and has now fallen further behind in the latest civic elections. Nagar panchayats In the election to 20 nagar panchayats, spread across 11 districts and 14 Assembly constituencies, the AAP managed to secure majorities in nine local bodies. While the Congress won a majority in just one nagar panchayat and Independents in four, the BJP failed to win any ward and the SAD won majorities in five nagar panchayats. Across the 14 Assembly seats that cover these 20 nagar panchayats, the AAP won more than half the wards in five seats, all of which the party had won in the 2022 Assembly polls. But by the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the Opposition parties had emerged as the leaders in all of these Assembly segments – the latest civic body elections have thus marked a reversal for the AAP in at least five Assembly segments. However, across another nine Assembly seats under which the AAP has now failed to win a majority of nagar panchayat wards, the party had won eight Assembly seats in the 2022 Assembly polls, and managed to lead in just four Assembly segments in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Each of the SAD’s five majorities in the nagar panchayats came in the Bathinda district, falling in the Bathinda Rural, Rampura Phul and Bhucho Mandi Assembly seats, where the Akalis converted losses from the 2022 Assembly polls into leads in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.