Oxford Study Heat Risk Mumbai Nagpur Pune Ahmedabad Vulnerable Cities El Nino

In a study conducted by the University of Oxford, Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune have emerged among the top 50 cities vulnerable to heat risk.

Heat risk vulnerability measures a population’s susceptibility to the harmful physical, social and economic impacts of extreme heat.

As part of the study — titled Moving beyond exposure: a globally comparable framework for heat risk assessment in cities — living conditions of people across 205 cities around the world with a population of more than 1 million were analysed.

Key indicators on which the study was based include hazard exposure, coping capacity and vulnerability. The study comes at a time when several nations including India are reeling under El-Niño – a climatic phase which occurs when trade winds weaken, pushing warm water towards the global east. As a result, El Niño leads to rise in temperatures globally .

Since March, several cities in India including Mumbai, Nagpur and Pune have been reeling under a heatwave and orange alert owing to El Niño conditions.

According to the report, 14 Indian cities emerged in the top 50 that are vulnerable to heat risk. This was followed by Nigeria and Pakistan, which have 5 and 4 cities each included in the list. The study shows that Maharashtra’s Nagpur, Pune and Mumbai were in the fourth, 23rd and 46th positions on the list. Other Indian cities that made it to the list include Ahmedabad at the second position, Madurai at the seventh, Bhopal at 15 and Kanpur at 20. The report showed that Nagpur was the second most vulnerable city in India after Ahmedabad.

“Heat risk in cities is not solely determined by temperature extremes but by the combined effects of environmental conditions, including humidity, mean radiant temperature, wind speed, socio-demographic vulnerability and system-level capacity to cope. As a comparative diagnostic tool, the results suggest that global heat risk planning can benefit from moving beyond hazard-centric approaches toward component-targeted strategies that explicitly address hazard exposure, vulnerability, and coping capacity,” the report stated.

“Conversely, several cities, including face severe risk under moderate exposure due to the socio-economic vulnerability and infrastructural deficits. While air conditioning can reduce acute heat stress for those with access, reliance on it as a primary adaptation pathway is not sustainable, particularly given its high cost and energy-intensive requirements. Increased fossil fuel-based electricity demand, high global warming refrigerant gases, and waste heat emissions can exacerbate urban warming over time,” the report stated.

The study was carried out by developing a risk index, which was classified into three categories – hazard exposure, vulnerability and coping exposure. The risk index was further assessed by considering socio-economic factors which include the demographic and socioeconomic conditions that increase susceptibility to heat-related illness and mortality, such as age and financial means and access to cooling infrastructure such as air conditioning, and ecological buffers such as tree cover.

For example, the population in Mumbai was compared with access to cooling structures and vulnerability scores were assessed.

“It isn’t just exposure to hot temperatures that matters for risk. Our study highlights the importance of multi-faceted global heat risk assessments, which reveal the diverse pathways through which urban heat risk emerges,” said lead author Nethmi Jayaratne Kariyawasam, a DPhil lead author of the study and researcher at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment.

Radhika Khosla, associate professor at the University of Oxford, who co-supervised the research said the study indicates that there is a heat risk planning that needs to be explicitly addressed and not only the exposure to heat risk.

“Air conditioning demand is increasing worldwide, but many cannot afford it. And if we over-rely on this energy-intensive form of cooling, we risk further global warming in a vicious cycle. In order to scale adaptation and thermal comfort for all, we must consider a nuanced approach to keeping people safe, sequencing solutions with passive cooling and low-energy technologies such as fans and coolers being the first step,” Khosla said.

Pratip Acharya is a seasoned journalist based in Mumbai reporting for The Indian Express. With a career spanning over a decade, his work demonstrates strong Expertise and Authority in critical urban issues, civic affairs, and electoral politics across Eastern and Western India. Expertise & Authority Current Role: Journalist, The Indian Express (IE), reporting from Mumbai. Core Authority: Pratip's reporting focuses sharply on local democracy and development, specializing in: Urban Governance and Civic Affairs: Providing in-depth analysis of municipal decision-making, city planning, and local infrastructure, essential for informed urban reporting. City Politics and Environment: Covering the political dynamics of Mumbai and surrounding areas, alongside critical environmental challenges impacting the metro region. Electoral Coverage (High-Stakes Experience): He has extensive experience in high-stakes political reporting, having covered major elections, establishing his Trustworthiness in political analysis: National: Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. State: West Bengal Assembly elections in 2016 and Maharashtra Assembly elections in 2019. Major Assignments (Ground Reporting): Pratip demonstrated commitment during crises by conducting ground reporting throughout the Covid-19 pandemic since its breakout in 2020, offering first-hand accounts and analysis of the public health crisis. Experience Extensive Experience: Starting his career in 2014, Pratip has built his foundation across multiple prominent English dailies: Started at The Times of India in Kolkata (2014). Relocated to Mumbai (2016) and worked with The Free Press Journal and Hindustan Times before joining The Indian Express. Pratip Acharya's diverse experience across major publications, coupled with his specialized focus on the intricate details of urban governance and a track record of covering major electoral and health crises, establishes him as a trusted and authoritative source for news from India's critical metropolitan centres. ... Read More