On The Spot Are World Cup Penalties Getting Worse

New Delhi: Before masterminding a stunning 3-2 comeback win over Egypt, Lionel Messi had his penalty saved by Moustafa Shobeir in the 21st minute. Having already failed to convert a penalty in the group stage match against Austria, Messi became the first player in World Cup history to miss multiple penalties in the same edition—excluding shootouts.

But he’s not the only player under scrutiny. Brazil’s Bruno Guimaraes faced widespread criticism late Sunday when Norway’s Orjen Nyland saved his weak stutter-step penalty. After blazing his effort over the bar against Colombia early Wednesday, Switzerland’s Manuel Akanji now holds a rare feat of missing shootout penalties in both the Euros and the World Cup.

The alarm over penalties in this World Cup holds some water. At the time of Messi’s miss vs Egypt, 32 out of 49 penalties were scored—which includes both penalty shootouts and mid-game penalties awarded for fouls in the box. This conversion rate of 65.3% is the lowest since the 1966 World Cup, according to sports analytics firm Opta.

Following Switzerland’s 4-3 shootout win over Colombia, that figure has improved marginally to 39 penalties scored out of 59—or a 66.1% conversion rate. But the damage has been done due to numerous high-profile misses.

Some of this gap can be put down to the usual pressure of shootouts, in which 25 out of 40 have been scored—or 62.5%. This figure is not too far removed from previous World Cup editions—2022 had 63.4%, 2018 had 66.7%, 2006 had 63.6% and even 1994 had 62.1%.

With the pressure of sudden death comes less reliable penalty takers. Thanks to the most recent misses by Akanji and Colombia’s Davinson Sanchez, the biggest underperformers in shootouts this World Cup are centre-backs with a mere 40% success rate.

As for penalties awarded for fouls during games, the current conversion rate stands at 73.7% with 14 penalties scored out of 19 awarded. This is in line with the last two World Cups which saw rates of 73.9% and 75.8% respectively, and well above the 64.2% seen in 2010 when players struggled to adapt to the Jabulani. Mid-game penalty conversion in 2014 was markedly higher at 92.3% --the best this century.

The time period between the 2014 and 2018 World Cups becomes relevant in light of a key rule change by the International Football Association Board (IFAB) over feinting or stutter-steps.

First popularised by Pele as the paradinha, the move is a fake-out designed to fool goalkeepers into diving too early, thereby allowing the taker to calmly slot the ball into an empty net.

A teenaged Neymar scored in this fashion at the end of his penalty run-up for Santos in 2010 to great controversy, to which IFAB responded by banning the move as being against the spirit of the game.

During the 2016-17 club season, IFAB softened its stance by allowing penalty takers to perform feints or stutters during the run-up while still banning it at the time of kicking the ball. The change has since resulted in several top players following in Neymar’s footsteps—including Eden Hazard, Robert Lewandowski and Harry Kane.

Fast-forward to 2026, however, and the stutter-step technique emerges as a double-edged sword, with goalkeepers better prepared for it by staying rooted to the centre of the goal as late as possible. As a result, the penalty arrives at a comfortably savable height at reduced power compared to a standard penalty technique.

Fifteen variations of this stutter-step style have been attempted in this World Cup, and only 8 have been successful. The most recent successes took place during the Switzerland-Colombia shootout via Luis Diaz, Zeki Amdouni and Ruben Vargas. At the time of Bruno’s miss against Norway, however, this conversion rate was under 50%.

Excluding all such stutter-steps from the overall figures, the tournament’s penalty conversion rate stands at 31 out of 44, or 70.4%. The risk associated with this technique is clear as day—for every Raul Jimenez against England, there’s a Kai Havertz against Paraguay.