Iran Us Conflict Strait Of Hormuz Oil Crisis Donald Trump

West Asia has once again descended into open conflict. For a third consecutive day, the United States launched strikes on Iran, and Tehran targeted US allies and commercial tankers, even as oil prices climbed to their highest level in a month. The June 14 Memorandum of Understanding, which established a ceasefire while allowing 60 days for negotiations on a broader settlement — almost half of which have gone by — has effectively collapsed. Days after Ali Khamenei’s funeral, Iran has once again closed the Strait of Hormuz, while President Donald Trump has reinstated the US blockade. The rest of the world finds itself caught between Iran’s dangerous blackmail and the Trump administration’s perilous unilateralism.

President Trump’s now-revoked plan of a 20 per cent fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz flagrantly contradicts repeated assurances of senior members of his own administration, including Vice President J D Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, that no country can levy tolls or fees on an international waterway under international law. Such a charge would more than double the cost of shipping oil through the Strait. Arguably, Trump’s threat also underscores the paucity of Washington’s options in dealing with an Iranian regime unwilling to relinquish its chokehold over Hormuz. In retrospect, the US-Iran MoU’s ambiguity over control of the Strait was far from being an oversight — it reflected irreconcilable positions that have set off the second major burst of violence since it was sealed. Tehran appears convinced that control over the Strait is the last and most potent card it has left to play, and is therefore determined to prevent the emergence of alternative routes that could erode that leverage. Its strategy of deterring ships from using US-coordinated alternatives will only sabotage the trust that is needed for a durable end to the hostilities.

Iran and the US do not need to become friends. They do, however, need to establish a minimum framework for engagement that does not crumble with every tug or pull. The consequences of failing to create such a baseline are regional and global: Civilians and seafarers continue to pay with their lives — one Indian crew member has been killed and one is missing after Iranian cruise missiles struck their tankers — while repeated disruptions to the Strait threaten energy supplies and global economic stability. No ceasefire can survive if the players slide back into belligerence and brinkmanship quite so easily.