Many apprehend that the BJP high command’s cavalier, unilateral selection of senior positions has harmed the party’s public perception. The surprisingly unsuitable CM picks in states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi and Bihar without democratic discussion, sometimes largely on caste calculations and electoral strategies, have begun to backfire. Prashant Kishor’s spectacular win in BJP’s Bankipur assembly bastion was a referendum against both Bihar Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary and BJP President Nitin Nabin, both considered unsuitable choices. When an untested Nabin was named the president, many wondered whether senior experienced party organisers would be willing to work under him. Nabin failed in his first test as president — selecting the BJP candidate for his former constituency. Some compare the party’s recent appointments to Indira Gandhi’s hubris in the 1970s when she assumed that even a lamppost could win if propelled by her own popularity.
Also disturbing are the visible cracks in a party, which takes pride in its cadres’ discipline. Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari’s followers suspect he was deliberately targeted on the government’s ethanol policy, even though it was not his decision, by enemies within, backed by the petroleum lobby. Influencers active in the anti-Gadkari campaign have earlier worked on some BJP election campaigns. Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has complained repeatedly to the PM that Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis does not keep him in the loop. The universally respected Environment Minister Bhupender Yadav was taken aback to find that most of his personal staff had been replaced overnight. After his resignation, Dharmendra Pradhan was pointedly felicitated by senior colleagues, and he also met RSS General Secretary Dattatreya Hosabale. Some disgruntled BJP members felt UP Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath acted with unseemly haste in ordering an SIT to investigate the ‘chanda chori’ allegations at Ayodhya, without an FIR. In fact, the CM was conscious that his political opponents would try to gain mileage from the scandal in next year’s assembly elections.
The BJP government’s sudden vulnerability after its brush with Generation Z is compared to the moment of truth during the 2024 poll results, when it found itself 32 MPs short of a majority. The ruling party made up lost ground and defied the odds to win a string of uncertain assembly elections, with Bengal its crowning triumph. But now the wheel of fortune appears to have turned against it, and there are signs of a more accommodating government outreach.
It is not the traditional opposition parties that pose the real challenge, but a restless, aspirational young India. The BJP has lost ground in two spheres once considered its core strengths — youth leadership and communication. Potential BJP youth leaders have either been sidelined or have lost their fire after being co-opted into the system. After 12 years in power, the party’s narrative builders appear arrogant and intimidating; their messages do not click with Gen Z. Pertinently, 52 per cent of our population is under 30. Caste and religious divides or direct doles may not be the magic mantra for future elections. Government accountability may matter most.
Sunil Kanugolu, the McKinsey-trained poll analyst, usually accompanies Congress general secretary KC Venugopal for discussions on election strategy. A recent meeting with Punjab Congress leaders Charanjit Channi and Sukhjinder Singh Randhawa in Delhi did not go well. Venugopal, armed with the statistics supplied by Kanugo, rudely ticked off the two Punjab strongmen, claiming they overestimated their electoral clout. Such blunt speaking may work in South India, but the two proud Punjabis, one a former CM and the other a deputy CM, took offence and walked out of the room.
Delhi’s hallowed Gymkhana Club has virtually stopped taking bookings for its premises for September. Shaken members fear their worst nightmare — the club’s actual closure.
